Playoff 2003

After 15 rounds, according to my records, there are only 8 teams who
have any possibility of making at least 58 points.  That means that any
team who makes 58 points is in the playoffs, or as I have called it in
past years, the "magic number" for making the playoffs is 58.  This
number will drop during the remainder of the regular season, and it will
probably not be necessary to make 58 points to make the playoffs.  But
at this time any team that cannot make fewer than 58 points is already
in the playoffs, barring forfeiture or withdrawal.

According to my records, ANZACS CC have 54 points with two matches
remaining, and since we give 2 points even for a loss, ANZACS cannot
make fewer than 58 points if they show up for their last two matches,
and so they will be in the playoffs.  First qualified does not of course
mean first seed, although ANZACS do have a potential that no one else
has of totaling 66 points at the end of the season.

The other magic number, or whatever the opposite of magic is, is now 46
after 15 rounds.  This number will rise until it equals the other magic
number at the end of the season.  There are 13 teams who could make 46
points or fewer, while eight teams must make at least 48 points no
matter how badly they do, barring a forfeit or withdrawal.  However,
there are only four teams at this point who cannot possibly make 48
points, and those are the only four who have been eliminated so far.  I
will refrain from naming them and simply say that my experience with
these teams has been good and I know that even though they may be quite
disappointed in being eliminated from the playoffs they have played
cricket with the proper spirit this year and have profited from that.

I do not mean to say that any team making 48 points will make the
playoffs, so please don't set that as a goal, you other 16 teams.  The
qualifying total for making the playoffs will be between 48 and 58
points at the end of the season.  That is as accurate as can be stated
now.  Of course the 8 teams who can make 58 points can guarantee their
places in the playoffs by making that total, but not all will, and that
will open the door for other teams who can still qualify.

I repeat that this all holds true providing that first, I haven't made
any computational errors, and second, there are no forfeitures or
withdrawals.  The projections are based on the assumption that everyone
will make at least 2 points in every further match they play.  Of course
if you forfeit you get 0 points and if you withdraw we will do some
retroactive computation of points for all matches on your schedule that
will upset the applecart completely.

Ron Knight